*Source: https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=588478
● Bitcoin PLUNGES – 110K Level Shattered by Hidden ETF Pressure
Bitcoin’s $110,000 Collapse — Hidden Variables Behind the Crypto Slump, Covering ETF, Fed, and On-chain Signals at Once
By reading the following content, you will gain:The ‘real’ causes of Bitcoin’s short-term sharp decline (ETF, financial cycles, on-chain interactions not often covered by the media).Risk signals from derivatives and options, and structural selling pressure from spot ETFs.The propagation path of the connection between the Federal Reserve (the Fed’s interest rate stance) and the global economy (global economy).Practical checklists tailored for both investors and institutions (market outlook-based practical strategies).Probabilities and triggers for mid-to-long-term scenarios (ETF inflow slowdown, miner/whale selling, re-acceleration of inflation, etc.).
1) Immediate (Current Situation) Overview — What Happened
Bitcoin fell below the psychological support level of $110,000, dropping to the $108,000 range.Altcoins across the board (including Ethereum) showed concurrent weakness, intensifying market-wide selling sentiment.Market sentiment has entered the ‘fear’ stage, and volatility is likely to increase further in the short term.General media reports mentioned ‘the Fed, technical correction, and ETF slowdown,’ but the core structural factors are separate.
2) Today’s Key Drivers (Points Often Missed by the Media)
Structural friction between spot ETFs and spot-futures arbitrage:If the spot ETF creation/redemption mechanism fails to rapidly absorb actual spot supply, fund managers or Authorized Participants (APs) may trigger spot selling (liquidity pressure) due to spot delivery requirements.Deleveraging of options and futures:Negative put-call skew in options and negative funding rates for futures (or a sharp increase in funding rates during a sudden drop) can trigger forced liquidations, amplifying short-term declines.Miner and Treasury selling timing:Miners, projects, and listed companies (Treasuries) may experience large-scale selling to meet dollar-denominated needs (operating costs/corporate taxes/financial 정리).Stablecoin and exchange outflow trends:Net issuance (or burning) patterns of USDT/USDC, and a decrease in exchange deposits, can reduce spot liquidity and have a greater impact on price.Resurgence of global interest rates and real interest rates (Fed’s negative impact):Rising real interest rates discourage risk-taking, putting selling pressure on the entire cryptocurrency market.
3) Short-term (Days to 2 Weeks) Checkpoints — Signals the Market is Watching
On-chain: Tracking increased exchange net inflows and large wallet (whale) transfers.Derivatives: Checking for a sharp drop in futures Open Interest or a surge in funding rates.Options: 1-week to 1-month ATM volatility, put-call ratio, and large options expiries (option expiry date, option range).ETFs: Daily net inflows/outflows and creation/redemption volumes, traces of APs’ spot acquisition.Miners: Large transfers from miner wallets and deposit patterns to exchanges.If all these indicators deteriorate simultaneously, the likelihood of an extended short-term decline is high.
4) Mid-term (1 Month to Quarterly) Scenarios and Probabilities
Scenario A — Technical Correction Followed by Rebound (40% Probability)The short-term sharp decline leads to an oversold bounce, and ETF-based funds re-enter, recovering 15-30% within 3-6 weeks.Scenario B — Prolonged Sideways Trading and Uncertainty (35% Probability)The Fed’s hawkish stance persists, and ETF inflows slow down, causing the price to trade sideways within a resistance range.Scenario C — Further Aggressive Downturn (25% Probability)Additional selling by miners and whales, continuous derivative liquidations, and simultaneous global risk events (strong CPI, interest rate hike signals) lead to a breakdown below the $100,000 range.Each scenario is rapidly readjusted by Fed decisions, US CPI/PCE data, ETF net inflows, and derivative market leverage figures.
5) Connection with the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Global Economy (Global Economy)
The correlation between real interest rates and risk assets has re-strengthened.Frequent hawkish signals from the Fed (reconfirming the possibility of interest rate hikes) accelerate capital outflow from risk assets.A strong dollar is highly likely to be a direct hit to cryptocurrencies (dollar-denominated assets).Potential for synchronization with global stock markets: A sharp drop in stocks highly increases the probability of a concurrent cryptocurrency decline.
6) Practical Signals from the Derivatives and Options Market
Funding rate and Open Interest changes:A sharp shift in funding rates from negative to positive, or a sharp decrease in Open Interest, signals deleveraging.Option skew (put-call ratio):A surge in put demand indicates increased downside risk, and volatility premiums expand.Vega exposure and volatility price:As institutions increase volatility hedging, spot selling pressure may temporarily intensify.
7) Practical Checklist for Investors (Individual and Institutional)
Individual Investors (Mid-to-Short Term):Increase cash allocation and plan for phased buying.Immediately reduce leveraged positions.Consider hedging using options (buying puts).Institutional/High-Net-Worth Investors:Rebalance according to spot ETF liquidity creation/redemption schedules.Perform stress tests on derivative positions (margin call scenarios).Manage cash/stablecoin allocation and implement hedging strategies (futures short/options) in parallel.
8) Regulatory and Policy Risks and Monitoring Points
Monitor changes in SEC and international regulatory bodies’ ETF-related disclosures and operational policies.Potential liquidity shock if stablecoin regulations (reserve/audit issues) arise.Changes in exchange regulations and tax policies (e.g., increased capital gains tax) are short-term selling incentives.
9) The Most Important Thing the Media Often Misses (Decisive Point)
For spot ETFs, the simple formula ‘inflow = price increase’ does not hold true.In the process of ETFs absorbing spot demand, if the financial and liquidity conditions of APs and fund managers, combined with spot supply (miner, listed company selling), align, it can actually create short-term selling pressure.In other words, even if an ETF generates capital inflows, temporary selling due to spot acquisition and financial adjustments during that process can trigger a price decline.This point is often oversimplified in news reports as ‘ETF inflow = safety net’.
10) Trading and Portfolio Practical Guide (Priority Order)
Urgent (0-2 weeks):Deleverage and eliminate liquidation risk.Intermediate (2 weeks-3 months):Buy in phases at market lows, seize opportunities with cash (stablecoins).Long-term (3 months+):Re-enter when fundamental confidence (network growth, adoption) is confirmed.Always: Clearly set stop-loss levels and risk limits in advance.
11) Global Economy (Global Economy) and Portfolio Impact (Investor’s Perspective)
A sharp drop in cryptocurrencies can exacerbate risk aversion, simultaneously negatively affecting stocks and emerging market assets.However, if interest rate and dollar shocks subside, cryptocurrencies may recover quickly in a “risk-on” environment despite high volatility.From a portfolio perspective, cryptocurrencies should be maintained as ‘high-risk, high-volatility alternative assets,’ but their allocation must be strictly managed.
12) Practical Signal Monitoring Checklist (Priority Order)
1) Daily ETF net inflows, creation, and redemption volumes.2) Exchange Reserves and large wallet movements.3) Funding rates, Open Interest, and option skew (1-week, 1-month).4) US CPI, PCE, and Fed statements (especially hawkish remarks).5) Stablecoin net issuance and changes in USDC/USDT holding structure.
13) Conclusion — Market Outlook (Market Outlook) and Action Recommendations
It should be assumed that high volatility will continue for the time being.The short-term sharp decline appears to be the result of a combination of ‘structural factors (ETF procurement, miner selling, derivative liquidations)’.Investors should consider reducing leverage, planning for phased buying, and implementing derivative hedges.From a mid-to-long-term perspective, patience is required until network fundamentals, regulatory clarity, and capital inflow trends resume.
[Related Posts…]7 trillion KRW worth of Ethereum withdrawals pending… large validator exodusBitcoin miners sell $485 million in large quantities… is the market shaking?
*Source: https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=588478
● Bitcoin PLUNGES – 110K Level Shattered by Hidden ETF Pressure
Bitcoin’s $110,000 Collapse — Hidden Variables Behind the Crypto Slump, Covering ETF, Fed, and On-chain Signals at Once
By reading the following content, you will gain:The ‘real’ causes of Bitcoin’s short-term sharp decline (ETF, financial cycles, on-chain interactions not often covered by the media).Risk signals from derivatives and options, and structural selling pressure from spot ETFs.The propagation path of the connection between the Federal Reserve (the Fed’s interest rate stance) and the global economy (global economy).Practical checklists tailored for both investors and institutions (market outlook-based practical strategies).Probabilities and triggers for mid-to-long-term scenarios (ETF inflow slowdown, miner/whale selling, re-acceleration of inflation, etc.).
1) Immediate (Current Situation) Overview — What Happened
Bitcoin fell below the psychological support level of $110,000, dropping to the $108,000 range.Altcoins across the board (including Ethereum) showed concurrent weakness, intensifying market-wide selling sentiment.Market sentiment has entered the ‘fear’ stage, and volatility is likely to increase further in the short term.General media reports mentioned ‘the Fed, technical correction, and ETF slowdown,’ but the core structural factors are separate.
2) Today’s Key Drivers (Points Often Missed by the Media)
Structural friction between spot ETFs and spot-futures arbitrage:If the spot ETF creation/redemption mechanism fails to rapidly absorb actual spot supply, fund managers or Authorized Participants (APs) may trigger spot selling (liquidity pressure) due to spot delivery requirements.Deleveraging of options and futures:Negative put-call skew in options and negative funding rates for futures (or a sharp increase in funding rates during a sudden drop) can trigger forced liquidations, amplifying short-term declines.Miner and Treasury selling timing:Miners, projects, and listed companies (Treasuries) may experience large-scale selling to meet dollar-denominated needs (operating costs/corporate taxes/financial 정리).Stablecoin and exchange outflow trends:Net issuance (or burning) patterns of USDT/USDC, and a decrease in exchange deposits, can reduce spot liquidity and have a greater impact on price.Resurgence of global interest rates and real interest rates (Fed’s negative impact):Rising real interest rates discourage risk-taking, putting selling pressure on the entire cryptocurrency market.
3) Short-term (Days to 2 Weeks) Checkpoints — Signals the Market is Watching
On-chain: Tracking increased exchange net inflows and large wallet (whale) transfers.Derivatives: Checking for a sharp drop in futures Open Interest or a surge in funding rates.Options: 1-week to 1-month ATM volatility, put-call ratio, and large options expiries (option expiry date, option range).ETFs: Daily net inflows/outflows and creation/redemption volumes, traces of APs’ spot acquisition.Miners: Large transfers from miner wallets and deposit patterns to exchanges.If all these indicators deteriorate simultaneously, the likelihood of an extended short-term decline is high.
4) Mid-term (1 Month to Quarterly) Scenarios and Probabilities
Scenario A — Technical Correction Followed by Rebound (40% Probability)The short-term sharp decline leads to an oversold bounce, and ETF-based funds re-enter, recovering 15-30% within 3-6 weeks.Scenario B — Prolonged Sideways Trading and Uncertainty (35% Probability)The Fed’s hawkish stance persists, and ETF inflows slow down, causing the price to trade sideways within a resistance range.Scenario C — Further Aggressive Downturn (25% Probability)Additional selling by miners and whales, continuous derivative liquidations, and simultaneous global risk events (strong CPI, interest rate hike signals) lead to a breakdown below the $100,000 range.Each scenario is rapidly readjusted by Fed decisions, US CPI/PCE data, ETF net inflows, and derivative market leverage figures.
5) Connection with the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Global Economy (Global Economy)
The correlation between real interest rates and risk assets has re-strengthened.Frequent hawkish signals from the Fed (reconfirming the possibility of interest rate hikes) accelerate capital outflow from risk assets.A strong dollar is highly likely to be a direct hit to cryptocurrencies (dollar-denominated assets).Potential for synchronization with global stock markets: A sharp drop in stocks highly increases the probability of a concurrent cryptocurrency decline.
6) Practical Signals from the Derivatives and Options Market
Funding rate and Open Interest changes:A sharp shift in funding rates from negative to positive, or a sharp decrease in Open Interest, signals deleveraging.Option skew (put-call ratio):A surge in put demand indicates increased downside risk, and volatility premiums expand.Vega exposure and volatility price:As institutions increase volatility hedging, spot selling pressure may temporarily intensify.
7) Practical Checklist for Investors (Individual and Institutional)
Individual Investors (Mid-to-Short Term):Increase cash allocation and plan for phased buying.Immediately reduce leveraged positions.Consider hedging using options (buying puts).Institutional/High-Net-Worth Investors:Rebalance according to spot ETF liquidity creation/redemption schedules.Perform stress tests on derivative positions (margin call scenarios).Manage cash/stablecoin allocation and implement hedging strategies (futures short/options) in parallel.
8) Regulatory and Policy Risks and Monitoring Points
Monitor changes in SEC and international regulatory bodies’ ETF-related disclosures and operational policies.Potential liquidity shock if stablecoin regulations (reserve/audit issues) arise.Changes in exchange regulations and tax policies (e.g., increased capital gains tax) are short-term selling incentives.
9) The Most Important Thing the Media Often Misses (Decisive Point)
For spot ETFs, the simple formula ‘inflow = price increase’ does not hold true.In the process of ETFs absorbing spot demand, if the financial and liquidity conditions of APs and fund managers, combined with spot supply (miner, listed company selling), align, it can actually create short-term selling pressure.In other words, even if an ETF generates capital inflows, temporary selling due to spot acquisition and financial adjustments during that process can trigger a price decline.This point is often oversimplified in news reports as ‘ETF inflow = safety net’.
10) Trading and Portfolio Practical Guide (Priority Order)
Urgent (0-2 weeks):Deleverage and eliminate liquidation risk.Intermediate (2 weeks-3 months):Buy in phases at market lows, seize opportunities with cash (stablecoins).Long-term (3 months+):Re-enter when fundamental confidence (network growth, adoption) is confirmed.Always: Clearly set stop-loss levels and risk limits in advance.
11) Global Economy (Global Economy) and Portfolio Impact (Investor’s Perspective)
A sharp drop in cryptocurrencies can exacerbate risk aversion, simultaneously negatively affecting stocks and emerging market assets.However, if interest rate and dollar shocks subside, cryptocurrencies may recover quickly in a “risk-on” environment despite high volatility.From a portfolio perspective, cryptocurrencies should be maintained as ‘high-risk, high-volatility alternative assets,’ but their allocation must be strictly managed.
12) Practical Signal Monitoring Checklist (Priority Order)
1) Daily ETF net inflows, creation, and redemption volumes.2) Exchange Reserves and large wallet movements.3) Funding rates, Open Interest, and option skew (1-week, 1-month).4) US CPI, PCE, and Fed statements (especially hawkish remarks).5) Stablecoin net issuance and changes in USDC/USDT holding structure.
13) Conclusion — Market Outlook (Market Outlook) and Action Recommendations
It should be assumed that high volatility will continue for the time being.The short-term sharp decline appears to be the result of a combination of ‘structural factors (ETF procurement, miner selling, derivative liquidations)’.Investors should consider reducing leverage, planning for phased buying, and implementing derivative hedges.From a mid-to-long-term perspective, patience is required until network fundamentals, regulatory clarity, and capital inflow trends resume.
[Related Posts…]7 trillion KRW worth of Ethereum withdrawals pending… large validator exodusBitcoin miners sell $485 million in large quantities… is the market shaking?
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