Crypto Doomsday Warning – 90 Crash Looms, Extreme Volatility

*Source: https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20250905004500091

● US SEC Overhaul, Crypto’s Safe Harbor-Exchange Listing Goldmine

US SEC’s Policy Shift on Virtual Assets (Cryptocurrencies): 7 Key Implications of Safe Harbor, Exchange Regulations, and Issuance Rules for the Market

This is not a mere relay of Yonhap News flashes containing official SEC announcements.Instead, we will organize the ‘decisive meanings and practical impacts that other YouTube channels or news outlets often overlook,’ grouped by category and item.Key contents covered in this article: The reality and limitations of safe harbor, the ripple effect of potential listing on exchanges (securities exchanges, ATS), hidden beneficiaries in the banking and custody industries, the outlook for fundraising (tokenization, security tokens) driven by token classification, regulatory timeline and policy risks, and the impact on the domestic (Korean) market and response checklist.We will organize this information around key keywords such as virtual assets, cryptocurrencies, SEC, regulation, and Bitcoin, presenting it in a way that is immediately useful from the perspective of actual investors and businesses.

1) The Core of This SEC Agenda — What Changes?

The SEC has announced the establishment of clear rules regarding the issuance, custody, and trading of virtual assets.Key among these are the potential introduction of a ‘safe harbor’ and the review of rules allowing digital asset trading on national securities exchanges and Alternative Trading Systems (ATS).This signals a shift from existing punishment-centric, ex-post regulation to proactive, structural regulation.Commissioner Atkins’ change in stance (“Most cryptocurrencies are not securities”) has altered the regulatory tone.In essence, reduced regulatory uncertainty will accelerate capital formation (IPOs, token issuance) and integration with traditional finance.

2) The Actual Meaning and Limitations of Safe Harbor — Points the Industry Might Miss

Safe harbor is a protective mechanism that ‘suspends or exempts punishment if certain conditions are met.’On the surface, it is highly attractive to startups and token issuers.However, there are significant restrictions:

Conditional Exemption: It is likely to come with conditions related to duration, disclosure obligations, and investor protection.
Limited Scope: Only tokens completely free from securities status controversy can benefit.
Administrative and Legal Uncertainty: It can be restricted at any time due to changes in SEC internal interpretation or court rulings.Conclusion: Safe harbor is a ‘safety net to foster growth,’ but the detailed conditions of the rules will become a variable that determines a startup’s business model.

3) The Ripple Effect of Exchange and ATS Rule Changes — Redesigning Liquidity and Listing Structure

If the SEC permits digital asset trading on national securities exchanges or ATS, the following will change:

Standardization of Listing Criteria: Listing review, disclosure, and market surveillance requirements will rise to the level of traditional securities.
Changes in Liquidity Provision: Market maker and order book models will be redesigned to align with securities market rules.
Accelerated Influx of Institutional Investors: Institutions require a clear regulatory framework to deploy large-scale capital.Caution: Not all exchanges will immediately benefit. Investment in systems, surveillance, and audit capabilities is necessary to meet regulations.

4) Hidden Beneficiaries in the Banking, Custody, and Fund Industries

The SEC’s regulatory overhaul is not just a ‘victory for the virtual asset industry.’Financial infrastructure (banks, trust and custody services, asset management firms) is likely to be the biggest beneficiary.

If Bank Custody is Allowed: Customer asset custody and clearing services will be legalized, leading to a surge in institutional demand.
Improved Fund and ETF Structures: Regulatory clarity will increase the potential for expansion of cryptocurrency-linked ETFs and index products.
Growth of the Risk Management Market: Demand for regulatory compliance, Anti-Money Laundering (AML), and cybersecurity solutions will explode.In short, the strategy of infrastructure and service companies will be key to market participation.

5) Token Classification and Fundraising (Tokenization) Changes — Expanding Corporate Fundraising Options

As SEC rules become clearer, ‘tokenization’ will become a real demand.

Standardization of Security Token Offering (STO) Issuance: Tokenization of traditional assets such as corporate bonds, equity, and real estate will become possible.
Tokenization of Private and Public Bonds: Digitalization of municipal and corporate bonds to generate liquidity.
Changes in Corporate Finance Strategy: Token-based fundraising for venture and small-to-medium enterprises will complement existing VC and IPO pathways.A point often missed in other news: If tokenization succeeds, a transparent ledger based on real assets could fundamentally change the market structure of traditional finance itself.

6) DeFi, Stablecoins, and Jurisdictional Competition with the CFTC — Borderline Issues

The SEC’s shift in direction will trigger a redefinition of the legal status of DeFi and stablecoins.

DeFi: Practical debates will arise on ‘how’ smart contracts become subject to regulation.
Stablecoins: Potential for dual regulation, covering both their status as payment/storage methods (under existing financial laws, payment and settlement laws) and determination of their securities status.
Need for Coordination Between Regulatory Agencies: Risks of regulatory gaps/overlaps remain as the SEC, CFTC, Federal Reserve, and Treasury Department each assert different authorities.Important Insight: Even if the SEC creates rules, market confusion is highly likely to reoccur if they conflict with the policy directions of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) and the Federal Reserve.

7) Regulatory Timeline and Market Scenarios — An Action Guide for Investors and Businesses

Here are the expected schedule and practical scenarios after the SEC announcement:

0-3 Months: Release of draft rules, commencement of industry feedback collection.
3-9 Months: Public comment period, public hearings, revision of draft regulations.
9-18 Months: Potential adoption of final rules (however, litigation risk persists).Market Scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario: Influx of large-scale institutional funds due to clear safe harbor and ATS approval.
Neutral Scenario: Gradual integration with limited safe harbor and strict disclosure requirements.
Pessimistic Scenario: Re-intensification of regulation due to court rulings or policy shifts.Practical Recommendation: Businesses should prepare a ‘compliance package’ (legal opinions, disclosure framework, security certification) to coincide with the release of the draft rules.

8) Direct Impact and Opportunities for the Korean (Domestic) Market

The US SEC’s moves will function as a global regulatory standard.The direct impact points on the Korean market are as follows:

Re-evaluation of Domestic Exchange Competitiveness: Exchanges that meet global standards (transaction surveillance, disclosure) will gain an advantage.
Speed of Response by FSC, FSS, and Ministry of Government Legislation: Likely to refer to the US regulatory framework to reorganize domestic laws and regulations.
Korean Fintech and Blockchain Startups: Export opportunities for tokenization and custody services.
Strategic Choices for KRX (Korea Exchange) and Banks: Decisions on participation in the digital asset listing and custody market will be made.Recommendation: Korean companies should prepare for lobbying and submitting opinions on the US draft regulations and proactively secure global compliance capabilities.

9) Practical Checklist from an Investor’s Perspective

Here are the items individual and institutional investors should check right now:

Review of Token Classification Risk: Re-evaluate the securities status of held assets.
Exchange Risk Assessment: Verify compliance with listing and custody regulations.
Preparation for Legal and Tax Implications: Review changes in taxation and reporting obligations due to regulatory changes.
Portfolio Scenario Planning: Response strategies (hedging, liquidation criteria) based on regulatory easing or tightening.
Information Asymmetry Management: Secure project/issuer whitepapers and legal opinions.

10) Legal and Compliance Practical Tips (Detailed Points Often Overlooked by Other Articles)

Here are practical tips that can be applied immediately:

Prepare initial design documents (legal opinions, investor disclosure models) that anticipate safe harbor application requirements.
In preparation for ATS listing: Proactively adopt standards for market surveillance systems and transaction transparency reporting frameworks.
Include ‘regulatory change clauses’ in partnership agreements with banks and trusts to share risk.
For DeFi-linked services, clearly define the scope of legal responsibility for ‘oracle and exchange integration.’Such preparations are crucial to becoming the ‘first eligible candidate’ once the rules are released.

11) Who Benefits and Who is at Risk (Winner/Loser Analysis)

Winners (highly probable groups):

Traditional financial infrastructure (banks, custody, audit, security firms).
Large exchanges and asset management firms with strong regulatory preparedness.
Startups providing tokenization infrastructure (platforms, payment, token issuance solutions).At-Risk (vulnerable) groups:
Small exchanges and anonymity-focused tokens with insufficient regulatory preparedness.
Early-stage startups unable to bear legal and compliance costs.Policy Implication: Regulatory clarity reduces overall costs, but those unprepared are likely to be eliminated.

12) Final Recommendations — Codes of Conduct for Businesses, Investors, and Policymakers

Businesses: Actively submit opinions on the draft regulations and invest in compliance infrastructure.Investors: Prioritize checking the legal nature of tokens and the regulatory compliance status of exchanges.Policymakers (Korea): Analyze the advantages of US regulations to establish domestic legal frameworks and international cooperation frameworks.One-line Summary Recommendation: As ‘regulatory clarity’ presents an opportunity, proactive preparation and a response aligned with international standards are crucial.

< Summary >The US SEC’s overhaul of virtual asset policy is not just an industry victory but a turning point that will reshape market infrastructure and fundraising structures.Safe harbor, exchange approval, and issuance rules present different opportunities and risks for startups, banks, exchanges, and the fund industry.Key practical points: Be prepared for safe harbor conditions, securities status determination, ATS listing requirements, institutional custody regulations, and the regulatory timeline.Korean companies and investors must actively engage with the US draft regulations and proactively invest in compliance infrastructure to seize opportunities.

*Source: https://www.blockmedia.co.kr/archives/971606

● Bitcoin Doomsday – 90 Crash Looms, Options, On-Chain Scream Red

Bitcoin Down 90%? 7 Key Points You Need to Know Now — Including Volatility, Correlation, On-chain Signals, Policy Risks, and Practical Response Strategies

Summary Highlight: What This Article Absolutely Includes

I’ll first summarize the real points that aren’t well covered in current news.Why the increasing structural correlation between Bitcoin and stocks signifies a shift to a ‘risk asset’.The mechanism by which the ‘position structure’ already in play in the options and futures markets could trigger a massive crash.Early warning signals provided by on-chain indicators such as exchange outflows and miner selling.The simultaneous impact of changes in interest rates, the dollar, and liquidity (liquidity pipeline) on Bitcoin.Probabilities for short-term, medium-term, and long-term scenarios, along with a practical risk management checklist.Immediate actionable investment and hedging ideas (e.g., ETF, spot, options, gold linkage).Now, let’s dive into the details, organized by time frame.(Included SEO Keywords: Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Interest Rates, Inflation, Safe-haven Asset)

1) Recent Situation (Now~3 Months): Volatility Signals and Position Structure

It’s important to note that Bitcoin volatility (including VIX-style crypto indicators) is rapidly rising again.Simultaneously, the call-put skew and expansion of put open interest in the options market signal greater downside risk.When futures funding rates shift from positive (long) to negative (short), leveraged long liquidations can accelerate.Pay close attention to net inflows and outflows to exchanges.A sharp increase in exchange balances signals selling pressure, while a sharp decrease indicates long-term holding or a shift to institutional selling.Coin movements and selling patterns from miner wallets act as immediate downside signals.Practical checklist for this period: Pudding (Option Delta/Gamma), Funding Rate, Exchange Balances, Miner Outflow Volume.

2) Short-term (3~6 Months): Intersection of Macro Indicators and Policy Risks

US interest rates (Fed’s policy stance) and short-term liquidity (repo, T-bill, government bond issuance) can simultaneously shock Bitcoin.If slowing inflation triggers expectations of interest rate cuts, risk-asset preference increases, but for already overheated asset classes (e.g., Bitcoin), there’s a possibility of a sharp drop due to the ‘ratchet effect’.A strong dollar (rising dollar index) tends to exert immediate downward pressure on Bitcoin.If the correlation coefficient between stocks and Bitcoin is around 0.6, a stock market correction will spread and amplify in Bitcoin.If institutional ETF inflows decrease or actual listing indicators (e.g., reduced net inflows) are confirmed, the price mechanism can quickly reverse.Short-term scenario: Interest rate shock + stock correction → gamma flip in the options market → liquidation cascade (probability 20~35%).

3) Mid-term (6~18 Months): Structural Factors and Liquidity Channels

Institutional custody and ETFs have increased Bitcoin demand, but these demands are connected to liquidity supply channels (e.g., collateral, leverage).Rising funding costs for banks and securities firms can inversely absorb Bitcoin liquidity through ETF channels.When ‘leverage ratio’ and ‘option delta hedging’ operate simultaneously, they create overheating during bull markets and sharp drops during bear markets.US and European regulations (stricter ETF rules, exchange regulations) lead to liquidity contraction, increasing volatility.Mid-term checkpoints: Institutional net purchase trends, option implied volatility (IV) levels, regulatory and tax law changes.

4) Long-term (18 Months or More): Real Demand, Inflation, and Gold’s Re-evaluation

For Bitcoin to solidify its position as ‘digital gold’, it needs asset allocation at the level of mainstream capital (sovereign wealth funds, pension funds).However, in the long term, the flow of the dollar, gold, and real interest rates (nominal interest rate – inflation) is key.If real interest rates rise for a prolonged period, traditional safe-haven assets like gold gain an advantage, and Bitcoin demand becomes limited.Therefore, for a hyper-bullish scenario like Bitcoin reaching $1 million to materialize, a sharp long-term drop in real interest rates and a global liquidity explosion are simultaneously required.Long-term checkpoints: Changes in central bank reserve structures, allocation shifts by sovereign wealth funds and pension funds, and sustainability of global monetary and fiscal policies.

5) ‘Really’ Important Contents Not Well Covered by News

Gamma (gamma squeeze/flip) in the options market is underestimated by public media.A gamma flip can trigger large-scale delta hedging readjustments even with small price movements, amplifying sharp drops.A decrease in exchange balances does not always mean ‘buying’.While a decrease in balances can mean individuals moving to long-term wallets, it could also be preparation for OTC/institutional selling (off-exchange trading).Fluctuations in miners’ ‘hash power and mining costs’ create a time lag in supply shocks.If miners face greater pressure to cash out than their mining rewards, market supply can flood.’Collateralization strategies’ by states and large institutions — if borrowing against crypto collateral surges, forced selling due to margin calls can occur simultaneously.Regional regulations and trade reductions in areas like China, India, and the Middle East change global liquidity flows.

6) Practical Investment and Hedging Strategies (Chronological·Specific)

Now~Short-term: Reduce leverage exposure and prepare for downside protection with options (Put spread or Collar).3~6 Months: For spot holdings, equalize with a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) buy and sell strategy.6~18 Months: Adjust a portion of asset allocation to gold and US Treasury bonds (mid-term) — set rebalancing rules based on inflation/real interest rate scenarios.Hedging ideas: Cover 5~15% of Bitcoin spot holdings with put options, or execute a buy-sell pair trade utilizing the correlation with gold ETFs.When using leverage: A dedicated rule is needed to monitor funding rates, option IV, and exchange liquidation levels in real-time.

7) Monitoring Indicators and ‘Warning Lines’ (Including Numerical Criteria)

Exchange Balance: 30-day balance surge +20% → Short-term downside warning.Funding Rate: 7-day average sustained negative shift → Increased short dominance and liquidation risk.Option IV: 30-day IV exceeds historical average by +50% → Possibility of a significant event (correction).BTC-S&P 500 48-month Correlation Coefficient: 0.6 or higher → Risk of simultaneous stock shock propagation.Miner Outflow: Net selling from miner wallets within 30 days is +50% compared to the 3-month average → Immediate selling pressure.

8) Probabilities and Responses for Likely Scenarios (My Perspective)

Base (Correction) Scenario (Probability 50%): 30~40% correction followed by range-bound trading.Downside (Deepening) Scenario (Probability 25%): 60~80% sharp drop due to leverage liquidation and option gamma activation.Extreme (Crash) Scenario (Probability 10%): 80~90% sharp drop due to global liquidity tightening + regulatory shocks.Hyper-bullish Scenario (Probability 15%): Simultaneous sharp drop in real interest rates and massive institutional buying → Re-acceleration.Response: For each scenario, pre-define rules for portfolio weighting, hedging, and cash positions.

9) Concluding Advice — 5 Things You Must Do Right Now

Reduce leverage.Pre-cover downside risk with options (especially for 1-3 month expiry periods).Build an automated alert system to daily monitor exchange balances and miner movements.Separate a portion of your portfolio into gold, cash, and short-term bonds to be able to cope with a potential liquidity crisis.Set scenario-specific triggers (numerical criteria) and trade by rules, not emotions.

> Key Insight in One Sentence Not Seen in Other MediaWhen options, futures, and on-chain indicators simultaneously signal “gamma flip + institutional channel liquidity contraction,” do not forget that internal position restructuring (liquidation cycle) is more decisive than superficial price movements.

Reference Indicator List (For Short-term Monitoring)

Exchange balance (30-day moving average).Funding rate (futures).Option put-call skew and IV (30-day).Miner net selling volume and hash rate.BTC-S&P correlation coefficient (monthly).Central bank announcements, US interest rates, dollar index (weekly).

Final Word

Bitcoin remains an attractive asset, but the current market carries complex risks of ‘overheating signals’ and ‘increasing structural correlation’.The key is to build defensive strength with indicator-based rules and hedges rather than emotional pursuit.Short-term volatility is both an opportunity and a trap, so pay special attention to position size and leverage.

Key: Bitcoin is more closely linked to stocks, and options, futures, and on-chain signals give simultaneous warnings.Short-term risks: Funding rates, option IV, exchange balances, and miner selling are immediate downward pressure signals.Mid-term factors: Interest rates, dollar, and liquidity channels dictate Bitcoin demand.Practical: Reduce leverage, protect against downside with options, partially hedge with gold and cash, set indicator-based triggers.Most important insight: Internal position structure (option gamma, futures long, institutional liquidity) can trigger sharp price drops.

*Source: https://m.coinreaders.com/184608

● Crypto Crash Warning Options Expiry, US Jobs Data Ignite Extreme Volatility for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana Option Expirations Surge and US Employment Figures: Why the Cryptocurrency Market is Shaking Faster This Week, and the Possibility of a Real ‘Mega-Crash’

This article covers key content — the immediate impact of option expiry volumes and ‘delta-hedging’, critical expiry levels and scenarios for each coin (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana), how US employment figures (NFP) correlate with cryptocurrencies, chain effects that can be caused by derivatives market liquidity and position concentration, and practical risk management and trade ideas often missed by the news.

Timeline (Chronological) — This Week’s Key Events and Market Reactions

Today (Just Before Option Expiry)
The ‘max pain’ level of option positions and the put/call ratio short-term strengthen the market’s directionality.
Delta hedging (hedging by option sellers) has already begun distorting spot and futures prices.
Expiry Day (Friday)
Deribit Bitcoin options totaling 29,000 BTC (nominal value approximately $3.28 billion) will expire.
Approximately 293,000 ETH (nominal value approximately $1.28 billion) in Ethereum options will expire simultaneously.
There is a high possibility of increased volatility and temporary liquidity disappearance (narrowing of bid-ask spreads) around the expiry date.
US August Employment Figures (Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate Announcement)
Market expectations are 75,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
Weaker-than-expected figures would likely lead to a ‘risk-on’ sentiment (interest rate cut expectations → cryptocurrency strength), while stronger-than-expected figures would likely lead to a ‘risk-off’ sentiment (upward reevaluation of interest rates → cryptocurrency weakness), determining the short-term direction.

Structural Pitfalls of Option Expiry and the ‘Real’ Risks Others Don’t Talk About

Practical Effects of Delta and Gamma Mechanisms
Option selling (especially concentrated puts) induces option sellers to sell spot assets for delta hedging.
A high put ratio (=put/call 1.39) can lead to additional selling pressure on spot assets, creating a ‘self-reinforcing decline’.
Furthermore, for illiquid altcoins, wider bid-ask spreads can amplify the magnitude of price drops even with small sell orders.
Misconceptions About ‘Max Pain’
Max pain is a theoretical price level calculated from the aggregation of option positions.
However, large institutional spread strategies, volatility buying (long options), and external news (e.g., NFP surprise) can hinder or even distort the realization of max pain.
In other words, max pain is merely a reference indicator and does not ‘necessarily converge to that specific price’.
Liquidity Gaps and the Risk of Overlapping Events in the Same Period
Simultaneous events like option expiry + NFP increase the potential for ‘bid-ask spread’ explosions during periods of thin order books.
Assets with significantly reduced 24-hour trading volume, especially like XRP and SOL, have a relatively higher probability of incurring large losses.

Detailed Asset-Specific Analysis — Key Levels, Technical Indicators, Short-Term Scenarios

Bitcoin (Keywords: Bitcoin, option expiry, cryptocurrency market)
Key Data: Deribit expiry 29,000 BTC (approx. $3.28 billion), put/call 1.39, max pain $112,000.
Technical Signals: Daily Ichimoku Cloud broken below (first time since February 2025), weekly MACD bearish cross.
Short-term Scenario A (Decline · 50% probability): Delta-hedge selling due to put concentration → further spot price decline → leveraged liquidations → testing below $105,000.
Short-term Scenario B (Rebound · 30% probability): Weak NFP → easing interest rate path expectations → large influx of call/long positions → upward pressure from option sellers’ call hedging.
Practical Point: Reducing leverage and hedging (spot/puts) by 5-10% before expiry is recommended.
Ethereum (Keywords: Ethereum, option expiry)
Key Data: 293,000 ETH (approx. $1.28 billion) expiry, put/call 0.78 (neutral), max pain $4,400 (current price $4,385).
Notable Point: Call concentration above $4,500, suggesting a possibility to challenge all-time highs if trading volume supports it.
Short-term Scenario A (Ascent · 40% probability): Weak NFP combined with EVM/ETF (or alternative demand) news → buying inflow from call hedging.
Short-term Scenario B (Consolidation · 40% probability): Price closes without significant movement due to volatility reduction and expiry settlement.
Practical Point: Recommending the use of carry trades between spot and futures, and calendar spreads for time value (Theta) management.
XRP
Key Data: Option expiry $5.54 million, max pain $2.90, current price $2.83, 24-hour trading volume -34% decrease.
Risk: Potential for relative volatility surge due to decreased trading volume.
Position Recommendation: Avoid leveraged positions, stop-loss is essential.
SOL (Solana)
Key Data: Option expiry approx. $29.87 million, max pain $200, current price $207, trading volume -38%.
Risk: Price distortion possible due to differences in on-chain liquidity (DEX) and centralized exchange order book depth.
Practical Point: Long-term leveraged short/long positions are risky, except for day trading/scalping.

Additional Insights from a Derivatives and Liquidity Perspective (Aspects Not Often Covered by News)

Position Imbalance Between CME and Deribit
A structure where institutions hedge in CME futures and individuals trade options on Deribit can create abnormal directional biases.
This causes a widening of spot/futures-option spreads, and it should be noted that as costs increase, rapid liquidations can occur.
Stablecoin and Exchange Fee Liquidity
When stablecoin liquidity is rapidly reallocated during large-scale option expirations, arbitrage opportunities (average price reversal) between exchanges can widen, triggering temporary sharp declines or surges.
Especially for coins with reduced 24-hour trading volume, ‘spot liquidity health’ decreases.
Market Sentiment Overreaction (Overrepresentation)
If option expiry and NFP results occur around the same time, the market may misinterpret both events as having the same cause.
For example, if a weak NFP was followed by strong selling due to option expiry liquidations, a feedback loop might form, incorrectly interpreting it as ’employment shock = decline’.

Practical Risk Management · Trade Ideas (Specific · Prioritized)

Leverage Reduction Priority
Reducing leverage is the top priority 24-48 hours before expiry.
Partial liquidation is recommended, especially if you have leveraged positions in Bitcoin, Solana, or XRP.
Hedging Strategy (For Individual Investors)
Spot holders can partially hedge with OTM puts (defending against significant declines even with some cost) or opposing futures positions.
Risk can be controlled while capturing some time value profit using calendar spreads with options.
Opportunity Capture (For Risk-Takers)
If NFP surprise is weak → seek profit with a short-term call spread (bull spread) upon confirming Ethereum call concentration.
Execute staggered spot purchases in oversold regions due to sharp declines in trading volume, but strictly adhere to liquidation rules.
Portfolio Strategy
Slightly increase cash holdings (5-15%) to absorb downside shocks relative to opportunity cost.
Pre-set the maximum allowable loss range relative to funds (e.g., reallocate some assets if the overall portfolio loses 5%).

Macro Linkage — How US Employment Figures Shake Cryptocurrencies

Bond Yields ↔ Stocks ↔ Cryptocurrency Relationship
Strong employment figures tend to strengthen interest rate hike expectations, putting pressure on both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Weak employment figures heighten expectations of easing monetary tightening, leading to capital movement into risk assets.
Role of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates
When real interest rates decline, preference for risk assets increases, and cryptocurrencies can sometimes act as a relative platform.
Conversely, rising real interest rates can cause a displacement effect, potentially leading to capital outflow from cryptocurrencies.

Consolidated Action Plan (Prioritized Checklist)

1) Immediately: Reduce leverage, limit position size.
2) Within 48 hours: Set hedges/stops based on key levels (Bitcoin $105k-$110k, Ethereum $4,400-$4,500).
3) Post-expiry (24-72 hours): Consider staggered buying if volatility indicators (VIX-like crypto index) show amplitude recovery, observing option liquidation status.
4) Mid-to-long term: Rebalance by combining macro signals (interest rates/employment) with on-chain metrics (staking/exchange net inflow).

Conclusion: What Should We Truly Be Wary Of?

We must be wary of simultaneous events shaking market liquidity and positions all at once, rather than individual events (option expiry or NFP) themselves.
Assets with decreased trading volume react more significantly to the same expiry shock.
The ‘max pain’ figure is for reference only and can be easily broken by advanced positioning (spreads/hedges).

< Summary >The simultaneous announcement of option expirations (Bitcoin 29,000 BTC, Ethereum 293,000 ETH, etc.) and US employment figures significantly increases the potential for short-term volatility expansion.A put-call imbalance (Bitcoin put dominance) could lead to additional selling pressure through delta-hedging.Ethereum shows room for a rebound due to call concentration, while XRP and SOL have a high risk of sharp declines due to reduced trading volume.Practical Response: Reduce leverage, partial hedge (e.g., OTM puts), establish stop and entry rules based on expiry levels.Important: Max pain is merely a reference indicator; derivatives and liquidity structures, along with macro signals (interest rates/employment), must be considered together.